2013 ATP Monte Carlo Preview
2013 ATP Monte Carlo Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
The first clay Masters of the year starts tomorrow in picturesque Monte-Carlo, as many of the top ATP players begin their tune-ups before the French Open.
ATP Monte-Carlo
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
April 14-April 21, 2013
Prize Money: € 2,646,495
Top 8 seeds (who all receive 1st round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Rafael Nadal
3: Andy Murray
4: Tomas Berdych
5: Juan Martin Del Potro
6: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
7: Richard Gasquet
8: Janko Tipsarevic
Roger Federer is not here and David Ferrer is out with a slight injury.
1st round matchups to watch:
Martin Klizan vs. (14)Juan Monaco
Klizan broke a cold slump and started his spring clay campaign with a semifinal showing in Casablanca. Now he’ll face off with Juan Monaco, in Monaco. Monaco broke his own cold slump and made the semis in Houston.
Ivan Dodig vs. Benoit Paire
Dodig last played in Miami and will start his clay campaign against Paire, who comes off another self-destructing loss against Tommy Robredo in the Casablanca quarters. Paire has the talent and the game for clay, but his mental game is a continual let down.
David Goffin vs. (10) Nicolas Almagro
Goffin has had a disappointing early season and sports just a 5-9 record this year but he will have a good chance to get an upset against Almagro, who is a finalist in Houston and will probably have to combat jetlag if he is going to fly across to MC immediately after. Almagro beat Goffin in Miami most recently, but still this match would have to be an upset special.
Top Half:
There was a question as to whether Novak Djokovic would play MC after sustaining a painful ankle injury in his most recent Davis Cup tie, but alas, he is in MC, sporting some tape on his ankle and looking to do well. He will open with Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Mikhail Youzhny and then could play a dangerous Ernests Gulbis in a tricky third round match if Gulbis can beat John Isner and the Klizan/Monaco winner. Gulbis is familiar with the surface and venue as he just played the Davis Cup tie between Latvia and Monaco on the same grounds.
Juan Martin Del Potro looks to get a solid start on clay against the Alex Dogopolov/Bernard Tomic winner, and that first round match is actually a rematch from last year in MC. Del Potro could then play Milos Raonic, Julian Benneteau, Viktor Troicki, or Jarkko Nieminen.
Tomas Berdych will open against a qualifier or Marcel Granollers and should play Andreas Seppi if Seppi beats his countryman Fabio Fognini and then a qualifier or Radek Stepanek.
Last but not least, in the top half, Richard Gasquet will play the Paire/Dodig winner and then could play Marin Cilic/Horacio Zeballos or Jerzy Janowicz/Kevin Anderson. Anderson is a current Casablanca finalist who proved to be adept on clay this week.
Bottom Half:
Andy Murray has had some of his better clay court showings in Monte Carlo and the winner of the Miami Masters will look to strengthen his hold on the number 2 ranking with a good showing. Muzz will open with Casablanca quarterfinalist Robin Haase or a qualifier and then could play Casablanca semifinalist Stanislas Wawrinka, Denis Istomin, a qualifier, or the charismatic but struggling Frenchman Gael Monfils.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will take on Nikolay Davydenko or a qualifier before facing Almagro/Goffin, a qualifier, or Jurgen Melzer, who comes off a bad first round loss in Casablanca.
Janko Tipsarevic looks to get back on track opening with Grigor Dimitrov or Xaiver Malisse, and then he could get a rematch with Gilles Simon who he lost to in Miami. The winner of that will most likely get the unlucky fortune of having to play the fantastic dominator of Monte-Carlo, a holder of a record 8 straight titles at the event, Rafael Nadal. Nadal is raring to go for title number 9.
Nadal will open with Marinko Matosevic or traditional rival Fernando Verdasco, who has given him good matches in the past but is in a serious slump right and now and not much of anything positive should be expected. Nadal could then run into Thomaz Bellucci or Phillip Kohlschreiber, who could both use some mojo right now. Jeremy Chardy or a qualifier are also options. It appears that Nadal will have quite the easy start.
Dark Horse: Ernests Gulbis
Will Ernests Impress in Monte Carlo?
Monte-Carlo looks like a bracket where the top tier players will do well, but Gulbis has the best chance to break that circle as an outsider if he can shock a hobbled Djokovic, who probably is not 100%. As previously mentioned, the Latvian is familiar with the conditions and he is having a solid year.
Predictions:
Quarters:
Del Potro d. Gulbis
Gasquet d. Seppi
Nadal d. Simon
Murray d. Tsonga
Del Po has a good draw lined up. I think Gulbis can shock a hobbled Djokovic, and Seppi could challenge Gasquet (but I have to give the Frenchmen the edge). Nadal is too good for Simon and Murray should squeak by Tsonga.
Semis:
Del Potro d. Gasquet
Nadal d. Murray
Del Potro is 5-1 career h2h vs Gasquet, including a win in 2012 in Estoril on clay and Nadal is 4-0 on clay against Murray.
Final:
Nadal d. Del Potro
It really is hard to find a reason to pick against Nadal in Monte-Carlo. Furthermore, Del Potro has never beaten Rafa on clay.
ATP Indian Wells: BNP Paribas Open Men’s Preview
ATP Indian Wells: BNP Paribas Open Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
The first master’s event of the year is here with the dual men’s and women’s event in Indian Wells, California. All the top players plan to participate and the field is as strong as it can get.
ATP Indian Wells
BNP Paribas Open
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Indian Wells, California
March 7-March 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 4,330,625
Indian Wells stayed in the news during the winter and spring because of a debate over a proposed prize money increase, which was eventually approved by the ATP for a single year.
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Roger Federer
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Rafael Nadal
6: Tomas Berdych
7: Juan Martin Del Potro
8: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
The top 8 seeds are the ATP rankings top 8, and all of the seeds are part of the ATP rankings top 32. All 32 seeds get 1stround byes.
First round matchups to watch:
Pablo Andujar vs. (wc) Steve Johnson
Andujar is coming off playing the golden swing clay events and is an abysmal 2-7 on the year. That being said, he is ranked 80+ spots ahead of Johnson in the rankings and thus, regardless of his form, a victory here would be a success for the rising American with a career high ranking just outside the top 130. Johnson made the quarters in San Jose and qualified in Australia but has been mostly average this year and he could use a good run to jump start his year. Look for him to get the upset.
Ryan Harrison vs. Go Soeda
Speaking of slumping players, we have Ryan Harrison, still ranked in the top 100, but having lost 3 straight matches to 3 very average players. He has a similar opponent this time, the steady but bland Soeda who has also only won 1 match in his last 4 tries. These 2 met once last year and Harrison won, but Harrison will be dealing with home pressure at a big event and is playing very poorly right now. Soeda could continue Harrison’s downturn.
Viktor Troicki vs David Goffin
This match will be a rematch of their 5 set Davis Cup rubber battle last month on clay. Troicki won it, but has struggled since, while Goffin is also having an abysmal year. This match could go either way and both these guys badly need a win to get some confidence.
Jarkko Nieminen vs Igor Sijsling
The veteran Fin met the up and coming Dutchman twice last year and they split victories. They both have solid games and Sijsling seems to be at the cusp of a breakthrough and hopefully fully recovered from shoulder issues. Nieminen last played indoors in Montpellier and will be adjusting, but also will be well rested, while Sijsling had an early retirement in Delray. This match is a tossup with an edge towards sizzling Igor.
(Q) Daniel Brands vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Brands is back in the top 75 and has had a great year thus far, most recently making the quarters as a qualifier in Dubai he will try to continue his success as a qualifier against Baghdatis who has been a bit up and down and may be vulnerable to an upset.
Top Half:
The dominant Novak Djokovic will face Fabio Fognini or Aljaz Bedene and then could face Grigor Dimitrov in the 3rd round if Dimitrov can beat Matt Ebden or Andrey Kuznetsov. In the round of 16 he could draw a seemingly struggling Sam Querrey, Jack Sock, qualifier Ivo Karlovic, Marinko Matosevic (who opens with Tommy Robredo) or perhaps least likely of all a struggling Juan Monaco, who is still seeded 14th. Novak should cruise to the quarters.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will play Robin Haase or James Blake and then could perhaps face Mardy Fish, who hasn’t played since the US Open and will finally be making his comeback to the tour at Indian Wells. Fish actually gets an opening round bye and will face Benjamin Becker or Bobby Reynolds to open. His form is precarious for sure, though. Tsonga could get Milos Raonic next if Raonic can beat Michael Llodra or Daniel Munoz De La Nava (who qualified after a strong showing in Delray), and then Marin Cilic, or the Albert Ramos/Horacio Zeballos winner.
Andy Murray, who has always struggled at Indian Wells and took extra time off to get rested for this event and Miami afterwards will play Evgeny Donskoy or Tatsuma Ito and then could face Martin Klizan or Tim Smyczek if Smyczek can beat Yen-Hsun Lu. His first real test should be against Kei Nishikori in round 4 if Kei can beat either qualifier Dmitry Tursunov or qualifier Phillip Petzschener and then either a early year rematch with Alex Dogopolov or Santiago Giraldo/Carlos Berlocq. Dolgo is struggling and may not make it that far.
Juan Martin Del Potro, the Dubai semifinalist, will play Nikolay Davydenko or Paul Henri Mathieu before getting a chance to revenge his upset loss in Australia to Jeremy Chardy (if Chardy can get past the Alejandro Falla/Bjorn Phau winner). Del Potro could meet Tommy Haas or Nicolas Almagro if Almagro can best Lukas Lacko/Daniel Gimeno Traver and Haas beats the Johnson/Andujar winner.
Bottom Half:
An off form Roger Federer could run into early trouble in the 3rd round, where after beating a dangerous-in-his-own-right Denis Istomin or qualifier Vasek Pospisil he could meet Julian Benneteau (who just beat him in Rotterdam). Benneteau will need to beat Ivan Dodig or Guido Pella to advance that far, though.
Assuming Fed gets through that, he could get another chance to whip up on his countryman Stan Wawrinka if Wawrinka bests Roberto Bautista-Agut/Wayne Odesnik then likely a slumping John Isner. Isner can’t seem to beat anyone of quality these days. Big John will face the Lukas Rosol/Lleyton Hewitt winner in round 2.
An ice cold Janko Tipsarevic will play Delray finalist and qualifier Ernests Gulbis or Memphis finalist Feliciano Lopez. The winner would face the Brands/Baghdatis winner or Andreas Seppi. This is all setting up of course for Rafael Nadal, in his first hard court tournament back (excluding the exhibition he played in New York). Nadal will play the Soeda/Harrison winner and then Leo Mayer/Xaiver Malisse or Mikhail Youzhny in what is actually a smooth start for the Spaniard.
David Ferrer will face Kevin Anderson or Victor Hanescu. Anderson could possibly upset him but it isn’t likely. The winner will face the Sijsling/Nieminen winner or Fernando Verdasco, who has been in iffy form himself. Gilles Simon will play Gilles Muller or Paolo Lorenzi and then Lukasz Kubot/Benoit Paire or Phillip Kohlschreiber, who has not played a match since the Davis Cup ties.
Richard Gasquet gets Thomaz Bellucci or Bernard Tomic, both in up and down form, but could still be a serious test for Gasquet. The winner likely faces Jerzy Janowicz, if Jano can beat Marcel Granollers/David Nalbandian.
Dubai finalist Tomas Berdych will face qualifier Mischa Zverev or a struggling Jurgen Melzer before getting an even easier draw with his 3rdround opponent, being one the slumping trio of Troicki/Goffin or Florian Mayer.
Dark Horses: Marinko Matosevic, Gilles Simon, Daniel Brands
Matosevic is a hot and cold player who can have spots of good tennis and then fall off the radar. He will be hoping to hit a hot spot in Indian Wells and he has the draw to do it with clay courters Robredo and Monaco, neither of whom are playing very well, and a struggling Querrey who he just beat in Memphis or the still inexperienced Sock. R16 is reasonable for him.
Simon is 11-5 on the year and has actually been playing well. He should benefit from the slow courts at Indian Wells given his style as a pusher and if he can beat Muller, Paire/Kohlschreiber/Kubot and then a possibly miffed Ferrer or even Nieminen/Sijsling he would be well on his way, again benefiting from facing struggling or surface adjusting players. I could see him in the quarters.
Brands plays well on hard courts and is bombing the ball right now. Baghdatis is an inconsistent player and Seppi is just so-so on hard courts. Tipsarevic can’t seem to win a match right now. He may not even survive Gulbis if Gulbis isn’t too tired from his whirlwind match play. Still, a tired Gulbis sets up well for Brands, and Lopez can be inconsistent too. I could see Brandswagon running into Nadal.
Predictions:
R16
Djokovic d. Matosevic
Tsonga d. Raonic
Murray d. Nishikori
Del Potro d. Haas
Berdych d. Gasquet
Simon d. Ferrer
Nadal d. Brands
Federer d. Wawrinka
Djokovic should roll, Tsonga will have a miniscule edge over Raonic, Murray should be tested by Nishikori and that match may go the distance. Del Potro has too much for Haas, Berdy vs Reeshy should be close, Simon should upset Ferrer, Nadal should survive Brands and Federer should assail Stan again.
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Tsonga
Murray d. Del Potro
Berdych d. Simon
Federer d. Nadal
Djoker is unstoppable right now. Del Potro could again challenge Murray, but I’ll give the edge to AM. Berdy should beat Simon again and Federer should win over a still adjusting Nadal in their first meeting before the semifinals of a tournament since 2004.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Murray
Berdych d. Federer
Djokovic is yet again unstoppable, as Murray couldn’t beat him in Melbourne, either. Berdych just beat Federer in Dubai and has every reason to do so again. He showed some fortitude in that match and I trust him enough to beat a lacking Federer.
Final:
Djokovic d. Berdych
A Dubai rematch. The result should be the same. Novak is dominating the game right now.
2013 ATP Delray, Dubai, Acapulco Previews
2013 ATP Delray, Dubai and Acapulco Previews
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
Another triple header is in order for the ATP tour this week with dual 500s in Acapulco on clay, the culmination of the golden swing, and Dubai on outdoor hard. Meanwhile, sunny Delray Beach, Florida will host an outdoor hard 250 event.
ATP Delray Beach
Delray Beach International Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 250
Delray Beach, Florida, USA
February 25-March 3, 2013
Prize money: $455,775
1: John Isner
2: Tommy Haas
3: Sam Querrey
4: Kei Nishikori
5: Alexandr Dolgopolov
6: Kevin Anderson
7: Feliciano Lopez
8: Xaiver Malisse
First round matchups to watch:
Michael Russell vs. (3) Sam Querrey
Russell at the age of 34 is playing some of the best tennis of his career all of a sudden and looked quite good en route to the quarters in Memphis after qualifying. He will face Querrey, who has been a bit up and down, losing in the 2nd round of Memphis after semis in San Jose. Sam will be the favorite as he has beaten Russell 5 times in a row but muscles Russell has a nice chance at another quality win.
(5)Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Ivan Dodig
Dolgopolov never seemed to be in great form while in Memphis, though he made the quarters and admitted he was coming off of some injury issues and still trying to get back fully with his body along with his technical play. He gets an interesting match with Dodig, who was competitive in his 3 set loss to Cilic in Memphis, plays well on hard courts, and is in decent form. Dodig will also have a good chance at an upset victory.
Igor Sijsling vs. (2)Tommy Haas
You have to feel a bit sorry for Tommy Haas. After withdrawing from Memphis because of sickness, he gets the misfortune of having to play sizzling Igor Sijsling, who packs a serious punch and looked quite strong in Memphis. Sijs won a good match over Melzer before losing a nail biter with Cilic in 3. Sijsling continues to show that he has a great multi faceted game when he puts it all together, especially on the mental side. He is primed and ready for a deep run in an ATP event. Haas did well to make the San Jose final and won his only match in Memphis, but I think even as a 2 seed he will be the underdog in this one. Haas did beat Sijsling in Auckland this year.
Top Half:
A seriously struggling John Isner opens with Jesse Levine and then will get the Go Soeda vs. Marinko Matosevic winner. Matosevic was a semifinalist in Memphis along with a defending finalist in Delray but retired from his semifinal match with a foot injury and his performance may well be questionable.
Defending champ Kevin Anderson comes off elbow surgery, and this is his first tournament back since the Australian Open, where he actually looked quite good before the elbow problem arose. Anderson will play a qualifier, then Yen-Hsun Lu or a qualifier. It should be a somewhat comfortable start for the South African, but you never know what kind of shape he is in. Also, the qualifying draw is very strong, with names like Berankis, Gulbis and Smyczek participating.
All in all, the first quarter of the draw is actually very weak with a bunch of players either out of form or coming off injuries.
Memphis champ Kei Nishikori will look to continue his strong play against Ivo Karlovic, then the Flavio Cipolla vs. Edouard Roger-Vasselin winner. In the quarters, Kei could get a Memphis finals rematch with Feliciano Lopez, who opens with Bjorn Phau. Lopez could get a rematch with Jack Sock in Round 2 if Sock beats Matt Ebden.
Bottom Half:
The Haas/Sijsling winner won’t have it much easier in the next round, as they will likely face Memphis semifinalist Denis Istomin, who opens with Benjamin Becker. The winner of that could get Dolgopolov/Dodig, Steve Darcis or Evgeny Donskoy.
The Querrey/Russell winner will face James Blake or a qualifier in yet another All-American matchup. After that, the winner could face a struggling Xaiver Malisse, a qualifier, a struggling Ryan Harrison, or perhaps most likely, Alejandro Falla. Falla could set up a 3rd meeting in consecutive weeks if both he and Querrey win up to the quarters. This is another pretty weak section of the draw.
Dark Horse: Igor Sijsling
Yet again, I’ll pick Sijs as my dark horse, and by now you should be aware of the reasons why. If he gets past Haas and a possibly tired Istomin things really open up, as his quarterfinal opponent probably Dodig or Donskoy isn’t as strong. In the semis, he will get yet another somewhat struggling opponent, probably still Querrey, but watch out for Blake or Russell. Sijsling should have really good chances at making the final if he keeps it together and with a weak top half of the draw, excluding Nishikori, has a great chance of winning the title.
Predictions:
Semis:
Nishikori d. Anderson
Sijsling d. Querrey
Nishikori, even if he is a bit tired, is simply playing much better than anyone else in his section, by far. Yes, I’ll pick the guy coming off elbow surgery in the 1st section because it really is that open of a draw. I could even see a qualifier making the semis in that section, especially a guy like Berankis. Isner has a good draw yet again, but he is playing poorly right now and can’t be counted on.
Querrey should also be a heavy favorite to reach the semis but you never know..
Final:
Nishikori d. Sijsling
I could see Sijsling winning if this final comes to fruition, but I’ll have to go with the steady Nishikori as the favorite.
ATP Dubai
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
ATP World Tour 500
Dubai, U.A.E
February 25-March 2, 2013
Prize Money: $1,785,500
Top 8 seeds:
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Roger Federer
3: Tomas Berdych
4: Juan Martin Del Potro
5: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
6: Janko Tipsarevic
7: Andreas Seppi
8: Mikhail Youzhny
500 ranking points and a whole lot of prize money brings the usual star-studded field to the desert for some tennis.
First round matchups to watch:
(6)Janko Tipsarevic vs. Nikolay Davydenko
To be blunt, Tipsarevic has been terrible this month, losing opening round matches to Dmitry Tursunov and Michael Llodra, a couple players ranked well below him, in consecutive weeks. Now he gets the still talented, but also very streaky and inconsistent Nikolay Davydenko, who he has a split head to head with 2-2 though they last played in 2011. Given how poor Tipsy has looked, Davy has a good shot a win.
Top half:
Three time Dubai champion Djokovic returns from his post AO hiatus (excluding the Davis Cup tie he played) against DC teammate Viktor Troicki, then will face Roberto Bautista-Agut or David Goffin in the quarters. He could get the Andreas Seppi/Paul Henri Mathieu winner, Lukas Rosol or qualifier Matteo Viola. Seppi has never won a match in Dubai.
Rotterdam champion and Marseille quarterfinalist Juan Martin Del Potro will look to continue his success outdoors against Marcos Baghdatis, who can still be dangerous at times. After that, he will play Somdev Devvarman or qualifier Igor Kunitsyn in the quarters. He could face the winner of Mikhail Youzhny/Blaz Kavcic or one of the two qualifiers in this section, Daniel Brands and Florent Serra. This is a tailor-made draw for Del Po and he shouldn’t slip up.
Bottom Half:
Five time Dubai champion and defending champion Federer will play wild card Malek Jaziri, who can produce some tremendous tennis at times but has otherwise been a challenger level player. After that, he should face an ice cold Marcel Granollers or dirtballer Albert Montanes. In the quarters, Fed could get the Tipsarevic/Davydenko winner or most likely Marseille quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic in what would be an AO rematch. Yet again, this is an easy draw for Fed.
Marseille finalist Tomas Berdych will face wild card Rajeev Ram, then either Tobias Kamke or Mikhail Kukushkin. In the quarters, T Berd could get a Marseille finals rematch with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who opens with Michael Llodra. Other less likely options are Jan Hajek, or the man he beat in the Marseille semis, Dmitry Tursunov, who gets a wild card after his surprising play in Marseille.
Dark Horse: Marcos Baghdatis
In a top-heavy field, there aren’t very many dark horses who are good for much more than the quarters (Tomic and Mathieu, for example). If I had to pick a top seed to fall, it may as well be Del Potro, mainly because he has played a lot of tennis these past couple of weeks and he still doesn’t seem to be fully on his game (losing to Gilles Simon, for example). Baghdatis has had good results before and has been on and off this year, including semis in Brisbane and quarters in Rotterdam. He should be well rested and could leave a mark on the field.
Predictions:
Semis:
Djokovic d. Del Potro
Federer d. Berdych
Djoker should beat Seppi or Mathieu to set this one up, Fed should roll, and Berdych should get revenge on Tsonga.
Final:
Djokovic d. Federer
It is pretty clear Djokovic is the better player right now, especially on hard courts, and I have no reason to think he won’t win this one.
ATP Acapulco
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
ATP World Tour 500
February 25-March 3, 2013
Prize Money: $1,212,750
The Acapulco field was weakened by the withdraws of Fernando Verdasco, Jeremy Chardy and Juan Monaco. Security issues around the venue related to the violence going on in the area further hampers this event. The event continues nonetheless and it is worth 500 points.
Top 8 seeds
1: David Ferrer
2: Rafael Nadal
3: Nicolas Almagro
4: Stanislas Wawrinka
5: Jurgen Melzer
6: Thomaz Bellucci
7: Benoit Paire
8: Horacio Zeballos
1st round matchups to watch:
Paolo Lorenzi vs. (7)Benoit Paire
Paolo Lorenzi comes off a 1st round loss in Buenos Aires, but is at a career high ranking of 56 at the age of 31 and is far and above a better player on clay than any other surface. He gets an intriguing match with Paire, who in addition to coming off a 1st round loss in Marseille, has been playing indoor hard courts in Europe all month and will be playing his first tournament on clay this year Though Paire is normally the better player, this match is ripe for an upset.
Aljaz Bedene vs. David Nalbandian
Bedene had a nice win over Horacio Zeballos in Buenos Aires, but then lost to Julian Reister in a bit of a surprise. He will look to recoup against Nalby, who beat Carlos Berlocq solidly before losing to eventual champ David Ferrer. This is an interesting match and Nalbandian will have a slight edge.
(8)Horacio Zeballos vs. Simone Bolelli
Zeballos comes off a 1st round loss but still has had a good golden swing. He should be the favorite against Bolelli, who also comes off a 1st round loss in Buenos Aires after some good prior results. This is a match between a couple of solid enough dirtballers and if you like clay court tennis, is worth a look.
Top half:
Buenos Aires champ and defending Acapulco champ David Ferrer opens with countryman Albert Ramos, then will get Lukasz Kubot or a qualifier. In the quarters, Ferrer could get Paire/Lorenzi, a qualifier or Pablo Andujar.
His opponent in that final, Stan Wawrinka, will play Fabio Fognini, a Buenos Aires quarterfinalist, then the Bedene/Nalbandian winner, both of which could trip him up early. 5 seed Jurgen Melzer will adjust to clay against Joao Sousa and then the winner of Santiago Giraldo vs. Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo. Melzer is close to dropping out of the top 50 and could use some wins here.
Bottom Half:
Rafa Nadal took a week off in Cozumel and comes back to an easy draw, opening with a qualifier then playing Mexican wild card Daniel Garza or a qualifier. In the quarters, he could get a slumping Thomaz Bellucci, who opens with Andrey Kuznetsov, Leonardo Mayer or another Mexican wild card Miguel Angel Reyes.
Buenos Aires semifinalist and 2 time Acapulco champ Nicolas Almagro will play Mexican wild card Cesar Ramirez before taking on Buenos Aires semifinalist Tommy Robredo or Filippo Volandri. In the quarters, Almagro could get Bolelli/Zeballos, Carlos Berlocq or Daniel Gimeno-Traver.
Dark Horse: David Nalbandian
For Nalby, his final showing in Sao Paulo showed he still had something left in the tank and he wasn’t just going to let his career fade away. He has a decent chance of success in Acapulco if he gets past Bedene, and Wawrinka is still suffering a bit of a hangover from his tough loss in the Buenos Aires final. If he gets through that, the semis would almost be a sure thing as Melzer or someone else probably doesn’t pose much of a threat.
Predictions:
Semis:
Ferrer d.Wawrinka
Nadal d. Almagro
Ferrer will be a heavy favorite to beat Wawrinka again, and Nadal has such an easy draw, he could yet again make the semis even if he isn’t near top level.
Final:
Ferrer d. Nadal
This would be the Spanish 1 vs 2 showdown on clay, with a lot on the line in terms of bragging rights and otherwise. Nadal obviously has owned Ferrer in the past (16-4 h2h and only one loss on clay, back in 2004), but he still isn’t near the level he was at when he won those matches and Ferrer looked good in Buenos Aires. Ferrer will also be trying to defend his title points. Though this should be a gutsy match, I have to give a slight edge to Ferrer just this one time.
2013 ATP Marseille, Buenos Aires Previews
2013 ATP Marseille, Buenos Aires Previews
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
We’ve been busy with Memphis, but there are actually two other events on the ATP World Tour this: an indoor hard 250 in Marseille, France and another clay court 250 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
ATP Marseille
Open 13
ATP World Tour 250
Marseille, France
February 18-February 24, 2013
Prize Money: €528, 135
Top 4 seeds (Who all receive first round byes):
1: Tomas Berdych
2: Juan Martin Del Potro
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
4: Janko Tipsarevic
Marseille has a star-studded field, especially for a 250 with the top 5 seeds all top 10 players.
First round matchups to watch:
(8) Martin Klizan vs. Bernard Tomic
Klizan showed some strong play this week and made the quarterfinals in Rotterdam, proving yet again he can be a very dangerous player indoors with the amount of power and touch he can show off. He will get an interesting match with Tomic, who dropped a 3 setter to eventual semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in Rotterdam, but should be in better shape after getting that match in.
Top Half:
Tomas Berdych will return to action this week against the winner of Ernests Gulbis/Jarkko Nieminen and that could pose him a bit of trouble as Nieminen comes off quarterfinals in Rotterdam and is having a great month of February.
The winner could face Jerzy Janowicz, the 7 seed, who was disappointing in Rotterdam losing in the 1st round to the aging journeyman Victor Hanescu.
Also in this section is current Rotterdam finalist and possible champion Julien Benneteau, who should be buzzing after knocking off Roger Federer. He opens with Lucas Pouille while Janowicz opens with Lukas Rosol.
Janko Tipsarevic will play a qualifier, then possibly get a showdown meeting with Montpellier champ Richard Gasquet, who opens with Gilles Muller and then possibly a Montpellier rematch with Gael Monfils (who plays Marcel Granollers first round).
Bottom Half:
Defending champ Juan Martin Del Potro, also still in the running for the Rotterdam title as a finalist, opens with Montpellier semifinalist Michael Llodra or a severely slumping David Goffin. Goff was bageled in his last match and has only won 1 ATP match this year.
Del Potro could then get a rematch with Gilles Simon, if Simon makes the finals in Rotterdam and beats Robin Haase and a qualifier or Roberto Bautista-Agut in Marseille.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was knocked off in the opening round of Rotterdam, will play a qualifier or Nikolay Davydenko. Afterward, he could get a US Open rematch with Martin Klizan, who upset him there. That’s dependent on Klizan beating Tomic and then Montpellier finalist Benoit Paire, who opens with Somdev Devvarman.
Pretty much every section of this draw is stacked with talent.
Dark Horse: Benoit Paire
Paire was a solid finalist in Montpellier, though he is coming off a 1st round loss in Rotterdam that can likely be chalked up to fatigue. He has a good draw opening with Devvarman, then getting the unpredictable Tomic, or Klizan. Klizan is very dangerous but had to retire in the 3rd set of his quarterfinal match in Rotterdam, which raises questions about his current stamina level. If Paire gets past that, he likely gets the unpredictable Tsonga, who he will be an underdog given the 0-2 head to head record. In short, this is a section of very streaky players and hopefully Paire will be the one on a hot streak among them.
Predictions:
Semis:
Gasquet d. Berdych
Del Potro d. Tsonga
Berdych is well rested and should be good through the quarter assuming he doesn’t trip up against Nieminen in the 2nd round. Gasquet, who should get past Tipsarevic in the quarters, has a slight edge on Berdych, given his hot form and a 4-2 head to head record.
Tsonga should edge past Paire in the quarters, while Del Potro may be tired but still has a somewhat weak section and I don’t see anyone threatening him. Simon has played the same amount of tennis recently, same goes with the edge over Tsonga who he has beaten five times, losing only twice.
Final:
Del Potro d. Gasquet
Del Potro may be a bit worn out, but he won all 3 meetings last year against Gasquet, including last year in Marseille and though Gasquet is playing great, the tower of Tandil should have a leg up.
ATP Buenos Aires
Copa Claro
ATP World Tour 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
February 18-February 24, 2013
Prize Money: $493,670
Top 4 seeds: NO BYES
1: David Ferrer
2: Nicolas Almagro
3: Stanislas Wawrinka
4: Thomaz Bellucci
First round matchups to watch:
Carlos Berlocq vs. David Nalbandian
Berlocq has made the semis and the quarters in his last two tournaments on the Golden Swing and is playing quite well. He will take on current Sao Paulo finalist David Nalbandian, who has been a surprise in his return to ATP action. This should be a rowdy all Argentine battle and a lot of fun with some excellent clay court grinding, Nalbandian won this matchup when they met last year in the quarters of this event.
Top Half:
Defending champ David Ferrer will start his efforts to repeat against wild card Agustin Velotti before the Berlocq/Nalbandian winner. In the quarters he could get Fabio Fognini, who was bounced out of Sao Paulo in disappointing fashion, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo or a qualifier. This is a somewhat decent looking draw for the top ranked Spaniard.
Thomaz Bellucci, who also got bounced out of Sao Paulo in a frustrated manner, opens with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman before meeting a qualifier or Tommy Robredo. Sao Paulo semifinalist Martin Alund, who has all of a sudden found a good run of play, opens with a qualifier then could play Vina Del Mar champ Horacio Zeballos if he can beat Aljaz Bedene. Zeballos is the likely favorite in this section.
Bottom Half:
Sao Paulo quarterfinalist and last year’s Copa Clara finalist Nicolas Almagro will play Guido Pella, a home favorite who is at a career high ranking of 92 and just earned his first ATP match win in Sao Paulo. The winner gets Sao Paulo quarterfinalist Filippo Volandri or Andrey Kuznetsov, who is struggling right now. In the quarters it could be Pablo Andujar, who plays Albert Montanes, Joao Sousa or Federico Del Bonis.
Stanislas Wawrinka starts his clay court efforts against Paolo Lorenzi and Daniel Gimeno-Traver or a qualifier. Next, he could face Albert Ramos, Flavio Cipolla, Leonardo Mayer or more likely Simone Bolleli, who made the semis in Sao Paulo. It’s a good looking draw for Stan.
Dark Horse: Federico Del Bonis
The 22 year old Argentine ranked just outside the top 120 in the world is actually playing quite well this year, excluding a loss to Rafael Nadal in Vina as a qualifier. He also won a clay court challenger in Colombia and clay is his best surface by far.
He has a good draw with a lot of average and out of form players including Sousa and Montanes or Andujar before a quarterfinal test with Almagro, who is iffy as of late.
Predictions:
Semis:
Ferrer d. Zeballos
Wawrinka d. Almagro
Ferrer should be good enough to outwork Zeballos, though it could be close, and Wawrinka will hopefully be in fresh form and take out Almagro after a pretty weak early draw. They met in the 2012 semis and it was Almagro who prevailed.
Final:
Ferrer d. Wawrinka
Ferrer has a 6-3 head to head record and a solid game on clay. He would be the favorite if this final comes to fruition.
2013 ATP Rotterdam, San Jose, São Paulo Previews
2013 ATP Rotterdam, San Jose and São Paulo Previews
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
Two indoor hard court events and an indoor clay court event are the ATP offerings this week. Rotterdam has the strong field of a 500 series event, San Jose will play its final edition before shuttering its doors, and the Brasil Open will be held for the second time in a row in vibrant São Paulo.
ATP Rotterdam
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
ATP World Tour 500
Rotterdam, Netherlands
February 11-February 17, 2013
Prize Money: € 1,267,875
Top 8 seeds
1: Roger Federer
2: Juan Martin Del Potro
3: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
4: Richard Gasquet
5: Gilles Simon
6: Andreas Seppi
7: Jerzy Janowicz
8: Florian Mayer
First round matchups to watch:
Bernard Tomic vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Both guys are regarded as the future of ATP tour. Both have also been good but inconsistent recently with Tomic having not played since AO and Dimitrov coming off a 1st round loss in Zagreb. They are 4 spots apart in the rankings and Dimitrov is a year older. Should be a fun, even match indoors.
Top Half:
2-time champion and defending champion Roger Federer is back in action and opens against Grega Zemlja, then will face the winner of Zagreb semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny vs. wild card Thiemo De Bakker. In the quarters, Fed could get Jerzy Janowicz, who opens with Victor Hanescu, followed by the winner of Julien Benneteau vs. Montpellier semifinalist Michael Llodra. It is not a super easy draw but it is one Federer should be able to handle.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga opens with wildcard Igor Sijsling and then the winner of Martin Klizan vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu. In the quarters he should get Gilles Simon, who opens with a qualifier, and then a qualifier or Marcel Granollers. This is another very good draw for J-WT.
Bottom Half:
Defending finalist Juan Martin Del Potro will open with a possibly tricky match against Gael Monfils, before squaring off against a qualifier or Zagreb semifinalist Robin Haase in the second round. In the quarters he is slated to meet Andreas Seppi (who opens with a qualifier). Montpellier semifinalist Jarkko Nieminen, who has drawn David Goffin, is also an option.
Richard Gasquet, still in the hunt for the Montpellier final, and playing great at the moment, opens with Viktor Troicki. He might see his opponent in the Montpellier final, Benoit Paire, yet again in the 2nd round. That’s if Paire can beat Marcos Baghdatis.
Florian Mayer opens with Nikolay Davydenko, who should have an edge in that one, and then play the winner of Dimitrov/Tomic.
Dark Horse: Bernard Tomic
While Tomic might be a bit rusty, he was also gifted with a good draw assuming he can beat Dimitrov. Davydenko was not that impressive in Montpellier and Gasquet or Paire may well be tired after reaching the final there. He has a reasonable chance at the semis, though he won’t be the favorite in that section.
Predictions:
Semis:
Federer d. Tsonga
Del Potro d. Gasquet
Federer should cruise past Janowicz and deal with Tsonga, while Del Potro hasn’t been great but doesn’t have a very hard draw. Gasquet will probably be tired at that point, but it should still be a close match though and I could see Gasquet winning.
Final:
Federer d. Del Potro
In a rematch of last year’s final, expect the same result. The Swiss Maestro should claim his 3rd in Rotterdam.
ATP San Jose
SAP Open
ATP World Tour 250
San Jose, California
February 11- February 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 546,930
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Milos Raonic
2: John Isner
3: Sam Querrey
4: Tommy Haas
1st round matchups to watch:
Benjamin Becker vs. Ryan Harrison
This match is notable. Why? Because Becker is your average aging mid level grinder who occasionally has a good run. Meanwhile, Harrison is still a talented young player but his career seems to have struck a bit of a rut as he remains outside the top 50 and really didn’t have very many great results last year. That being said, San Jose was his best result last year in reaching the semis, and if Harrison is going to get up in the rankings these are the kind of matches he needs to win.
Harrison has not played a match since Australia, meaning that there might be some rust in his game, while Becker comes off a 1st round loss in Zagreb. This one could go either way, though Harrison will have fan support and beat Becker twice last year.
Blaz Kavcic vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Zagreb quarterfinalist Blaz Kavcic is playing very well right now and will be one to watch as he takes on Hewitt. The Aussie is at an uncertain level at the moment, having not played that many matches in the first month of the year. This match could also go either way depending on Kavcic’s fatigue level and Hewitt’s activity level. Kavcic has a 2-0 H2H record against Hewitt.
(WC) Jack Sock vs. (7) Marinko Matosevic
Sock is another young American player who has been a real rollercoaster recently. He comes into San Jose having not played a match since AO qualies, and may well be ice cold to take on Matosevic, another Aussie at an unsure level. If Sock is going to improve his ranking, these are the kind of matchups he needs to win, but I don’t think you can expect him to win this one.
Ivo Karlovic vs. (WC) Steve Johnson
Karlovic is of course known for his fantastic serve and not much else, as he knocked off Grigor Dimitrov in Zagreb but then fell in the next round. As for Johnson, he fell in the opening round of the Dallas challenger and is playing questionably at the moment. This is another pick ‘em matchup, almost certain to end with two or three tiebreaks and a whole lot of holding serve.
Top Half
Milos Raonic is coming off Davis Cup dominance and has won this event twice in a row. He’ll open with Michael Russell or a qualifier, then likely faces 6 seed Denis Istomin (if Istomin can beat a qualifier) and the Becker/Harrison winner. Assuming Raonic is in good health, he should cruise to the semis.
Sam Querrey, also coming off a confident and successful Davis Cup showing, opens with the Hewitt/Kavcic winner. That could be a possible trip up on a bad day, but otherwise should also be in route for the semis. His quarterfinal opponent would be the Matosevic/Sock winner, Flavio Cipolla or Alejandro Falla. This is another pretty weak quarter of middling players.
Bottom Half
John Isner will hopefully be fully rested and have his game together to take on the winner of Vasek Pospisil vs. Evgeny Donskoy in an intriguing first rounder. He would get either 8 seed Xavier Malisse or Go Soeda in the quarters, with a qualifier or the struggling Matt Ebden also options.
Tommy Haas is in his first match back from a opening round loss in Australia. Haas will start with Jesse Levine or Bradley Klahn, before a likely difficult quarterfinal matchup with Fernando Verdasco. Former finalist Verdasco opens with a qualifier followed by the Karlovic/Johnson winner. This is easily the most competitive quarter of the four.
Dark Horse: Evgeny Donskoy
This tournament is top heavy and not the most fertile spot for dark horses, but Donskoy fits the bill. If he can slide past Pospisil and Isner is still in a funk, he grabs the upset, which would really open things up and make a semifinal run feasible. The 22-year-old Russian is talented and capable, along with being at a career high ranking of 68 but it is still unlikely. Furthermore, possible quarterfinal opponent Soeda beat him in straights recently in Chennai.
Predictions
Semis
Raonic d. Querrey
Verdasco d. Isner
Raonic and Querrey could really slug it out indoors in a match in which Raonic will have a slight edge. Verdasco ought to be good enough to get past a struggling Isner, who has not been at his best at all this year.
Final
Raonic d. Verdasco
This would be a rematch of the 2011 final, in the tournaments final edition. You have to expect the result to be the same, with Raonic capping off 3 straight with another beast mode showing indoors.
ATP Sao Paulo
Brasil Open
ATP World Tour 250
São Paulo, Brazil
February 11-February 17, 2013
Prize Money: $ 455,775
Top 4 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Rafael Nadal
2: Nicolas Almagro
3: Juan Monaco
4: Jeremy Chardy
1st round matchups to watch:
Andrey Kuznetsov vs. Carlos Berlocq
If you’ve paid attention this week, this match is a rematch of their 1st round encounter just a few days ago in Vina Del Mar, won by Berlocq easily in straight sets. Nothing has changed, except Berlocq is still in the running for the Vina title and may be a bit tired by the time he reaches this match.
(7) Pablo Andujar vs. Santiago Giraldo
Andujar hasn’t won a match this year, including an opening match loss in Vina Del Mar and is on a precarious footing as he takes on the steady eddy Giraldo. He should have just enough to hand the seeded Andujar another loss.
Top Half:
It is a draw eerily identical to Vina Del Mar. Rafael Nadal, who has been comfortable and confident as he seeks the title in Vina, will open with a qualifier or Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo. He could then face the “warlocq”, Berlocq again if they meet in the Vina final. Rafa could also face Vina quarterfinalist Albert Ramos, Guillermo-Garcia Lopez or Kuznetsov.
Nadal’s Vina semifinal opponent Jeremy Chardy opens with Leo Mayer or wild card Ricardo Mello and then 5 seed Thomaz Bellucci in the quarters (if Bellucci beats a qualifier and the winner of Filippo Volandri/Daniel Gimeno-Traver). Gimeno-Traver is coming off the quarterfinals in Vina.
Bottom Half:
Nicolas Almagro will return to action after a bit of a layoff, as he faces either a qualifier or current Vina semifinalist Horacio Zeballos. Looking ahead to the quarters, he could get 6 seed Fabio Fognini (coming off a confident Davis Cup showing), Guido Pella, David Nalbandian (who happens to be playing doubles with Nadal), or a qualifier.
Juan Monaco lost his opening round match in Vina Del Mar and will be looking to pick things back up against either Tommy Robredo or Simone Bolelli. The winner of that match could get the Giraldo/Andujar winner, Albert Montanes or Vina quarterfinalist Paolo Lorenzi.
Dark Horse: Fabio Fognini
Fognini should be both rested and confident compared to other players in his section. His first two rounds against Pella and Nalbandian/Qualifer should be somewhat easy and likely quarterfinal opponent Almagro may be a bit rusty having not played since Australia. Zeballos, another possibility, could be fatigued after a strong showing in Vina.
He has a good shot at at least the semis, where likely opponent Monaco has been inconsistent, as have most of the players in that section.
Predictions:
Semis:
Nadal d. Bellucci
Fognini d. Monaco
Nadal should not have any trouble with Bellucci, who is solid enough on clay and well rested enough to beat Chardy. Fognini should be in good enough form to beat Monaco for the first time.
Final:
Nadal d. Fognini
Nadal has looked just fine in his comeback and you really can’t expect anything short of a title against a field like this. He should be undefeated at this point in his comeback.
2013 Australian Open Week 2 Men’s Preview
2013 Australian Open Week 2 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
The first week of the first slam of the year is in the books, and while I will admit it has not been quite as memorable of an opening week as previous years, it still packed a punch and had some very big, exciting moments. Of the 16 players remaining in the draw, seven of the top eight seeds remain. However, all of the Americans and home favorite Australians have been eliminated.
As for matches of the opening week, for the sake of quality it would have to be Gael Monfils’ first round clash with Alexandr Dolgopolov that went four sets. The thriller was full of absolutely epic shot making from both guys, and some stellar ace serving from Monfils.
Rumors of Monfils death are greatly exaggerated
And for the sake of length, unsurprisingly Monfils was also involved in an intense five hour, past midnight, 5 setter with countryman Gilles Simon. There, both players were injured throughout, with cramping, hand blisters, gimpy legs and sore arms with both mentally pushing on.
Simon won the first two sets only to drop two straight after injury issues. They then battled in the fifth with Monfils getting broken twice, only to break back once. Simon managed to serve it out 8-6 in the fifth. Did I mention that Simon was basically rolling his serves in there at 80 mph or less for the final couple sets of the match, yet Monfils couldn’t do that much with it? For the kicker, the average rally length in this match was easily 30 shots or more, and 40+ shot rallies were par for the course, though the pace of the match adjusted with the fatigue of both players. Simon was quoted as saying after the match “I was almost dying at the end of the second set”… and they played three more intense sets after.
Also challenging for the length category was a second round clash between Blaz Kavic and James Duckworth in the searing 100+ degree Melbourne heat for five hours. They could barely stand in the end as the fans urged them both on, and Kavic finally prevailed. He later tweeted a picture of himself flat on a stretcher in the locker room getting an IV. It was that intense. Duckworth, meanwhile, had played a five setter in the previous round and I’m sure set some sort of two round time record.
Also, extra special credit and respect to both Simon and Kavic for staying around to interact with fans and sign autographs after those matches. Quite an amazing gesture in and of itself.
Here is a breakdown of the eight round of 16 matchups.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (15) Stanislas Wawrinka
Novak has rolled through his first three opponents, Paul Henri-Mathieu, Ryan Harrison and Radek Stepanek, eliminating them all in straights, even though none of them played that poorly. He appears poised to continue his winning ways against Wawrinka, who beat Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Tobias Kamke and Sam Querrey all in straights to advance.
The fourth round is a good result for Stan the Man, but this is likely the end of his road in Melbourne as he has has lost to Djokovic 11 times in 13 meetings, and all of their meetings in the past 3 years.
As a note on Querrey’s second round opponent Brian Baker, one of the unfortunate incidents to come out AO this week is his tore meniscus in his knee and Baker will be out 4 months at a minimum. It’s a real shame to see a guy who has already been through so much suffer further injuries, and furthermore, it erases his chance to rack up basically free ranking points in the part of the year he didn’t play at the ATP level last year. Just a sad story all around and hopefully he can recover.
Kevin Anderson vs. (5) Tomas Berdych
This will be a battle of the big guys with some big weapons. The seemingly resurgent Anderson beat Paolo Lorenzi in four, Andrey Kuznetsov (who notched the opening round win over Juan Monaco) in straights, and gutted out a tough five set victory against Fernando Verdasco. Anderson has relied on his serve and his forehand to carry him through.
Berdych overcame some early year jitters to get past Michael Russell, Guillaume Rufin and Jurgen Melzer in straights, but Anderson should be a much tougher customer than his first three opponents.
This match could easily go five sets given the style of play, but I’ll still give the slight edge to advance to Anderson, the first South African man to reach the round of 16 in a major in 10 years. Berdych beat Anderson four times last year, including at last year’s Australian Open, but new trends have to start somewhere.
(4) David Ferrer vs. (16) Kei Nishikori
David Ferrer has looked lights out in his first three matches: a win over Olivier Rochus in straights, a four set win over an otherwise determined Tim Smyczek (who deserves a lot of credit for making a match of it after a slow start), and a surprising straight sets crushing of Marcos Baghdatis.
Nishikori has overcome any worries about his knee to record wins over Victor Hanescu in four, Carlos Berlocq in straights, and Evgeny Donskoy in straights. The developing Donskoy may have performed a changing of the guard in Russian tennis in the previous round after a solid five set win over the top ranked Russian male Mikhail Youzhny.
Really not much to say about the performance of either guy here so far, except that both are playing well, and Ferrer will be the favorite and should advance, even though he does hold a losing head to head record to the top man from Japan.
(10) Nicolas Almagro vs. (8) Janko Tipsarevic
Nico Almagro is looking strong after recording wins over Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Jerzy Janowicz in straights, and after winning his first round encounter with Steve Johnson in four sets. Tipsarevic gutted out a straight sets win over Lleyton Hewitt in surviving a barrage of shot making efforts. Next, he lost a two set lead against Lukas Lacko only to come back and win it in the fifth. To make the round of 16, Tipsy beat Julien Benneteau in five by winning the last two sets.
Tipsarevic has done his best to make his matches memorable but hopefully hasn’t worn himself down for what could be a ripping slugfest with Almagro. He was quoted as saying after his match with Benneteau “”Long matches can affect my physical condition”, and with that being true, I give the slight edge to Almagro here.
Jeremy Chardy vs. (21) Andreas Seppi
Jeremy Chardy pulled off the shock of the tournament and the upset of his career so far when he defeated Juan Martin Del Potro in five sets to reach the round of 16. Del Potro seemed disinterested through the first 2 sets, only to up his level just a bit in the third set and just barely edge past Chardy, who missed his chances to finish the Argentine off. Del Potro then took the fourth set and it appeared that this would be another case of a lower ranked player taking a lead in a five set match only to freeze up closing it out and fade late. The difference is a tired Chardy still stuck with it and didn’t fade, matching holds with Del Potro, who still couldn’t get his shots working effectively. Finally he broke Del Po and took the last set 6-3.
It was a very disappointing result for Del Potro, who had looked at ease in his first two matches. Chardy also beat Marcel Granollers in four sets in round after beating Adrian Menendez-Maceiras in the four set opener.
As for Seppi, he beat Horacio Zeballos in straights. Prior to that drubbing, he needed all five sets to get past both Denis Istomin and Marin Cilic, outlasting them with consistent play and breaks when he needed them.
This match is quite a lucky shot at the quarters for both guys, and Chardy will certainly be able to dictate with his serve. Meanwhile, Seppi might be a bit worn down. This match is an even proposition, but I’ll give a very slight edge to Seppi, who is normally the better player.
(14) Gilles Simon vs. (3) Andy Murray
I already mentioned Simon’s heroics, and he also beat Filippo Volandri and Jesse Levine in four after dropping the opening set. The problem is, he is the walking wounded for this match against Murray, who rolled over Robin Haase and Joao Sousa in straights. Muzz overcame frustration to get past the tricky Ricardas Berankis in straights, though the scoreline is a bit misleading in that one in that Berankis had a ton of chances to get in the match and take the lead, but failed to convert, while the more experienced Murray was able to serve just well enough to hang on.
Murray will be a clear favorite in this one, even against a rested and healthy Simon. Given that Simon is neither rested nor appears healthy, Simon’s odds are even worse.
(7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (9) Richard Gasquet
Tsonga beat Michael Llodra, Go Soeda and an exhausted Blaz Kavic all in straights, and is rolling, though not totally sharp. Compatriot Gasquet beat Albert Montanes and Alejandro Falla in straights, then came back from a set down to beat the scrappy Ivan Dodig, who Gasquet let push him around the court for a bit until Dodig ran out of energy. Dodig made the third round with a win over Jarkko Nieminen, who played an absolutely epic first round match with Tommy Haas, finally besting him.
This was the match most people were expecting and something to certainly look forward to seeing. Both guys are playing fine and I’ll stick with my original pick of going with Gasquet in an upset.
(13) Milos Raonic vs. (2) Roger Federer
Milos Raonic has gone under the radar this first week, winning matches over Jan Hajek and Lukas Rosol before dispatching Phillip Kohlschreiber, who hadn’t been broken on serve up until that match, in straights. Now he runs into the Big Red Machine Known As Roger Federer, who has been clinical in wins over Benoit Paire, Nikolay Davydenko, and Bernard Tomic. The Big Red Machine beating all of them in straights and is not messing around.
Federer is clicking here, and I expect Raonic to be yet another casualty on the Melbourne road.
As a note on Tomic, he played quite fine up until the Fed match, not losing his serve including in a tight four set victory over Daniel Brands, but Fed was just too good.
Predictions:
QUARTERFINALS:
Djokovic d. Anderson
Ferrer d. Almagro
Murray d. Seppi
Federer d. Gasquet
Sticking with the top 4 here and I don’t see any of them having trouble.
SEMIFINALS:
Djokovic d. Ferrer
Murray d. Federer
Ferrer might trouble Djoker, but not enough to win. Federer/Murray, on the other hand, could be absolutely epic if both guys play at the top level. Fed has looked slightly better thus far, but I’ll still stick with my original call and say Murray gets through.
FINAL
Djokovic d. Murray
Sticking with the original picks here as well.
2013 Australian Open Week 1 Men’s Preview #AusOpen
2013 Australian Open Week 1 Men’s Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
Australian Open
Grand Slam
January 14-January 27, 2013
It’s time again for my personal favorite slam, the happy slam, the thrilling, exhilarating, hyper intense Australian Open. It’s live with late night and early morning action from Melbourne park, and it’s a world away. It is the first slam of the year and every player is looking for a good result to set the mood for the season ahead. In the next two weeks, history and memories will be made once again and here is a preview of the men’s side of the action.
Top 8 seeds
1: Novak Djokovic
2: Roger Federer
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Tomas Berdych
6: Juan Martin Del Potro
7: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
8: Janko Tipsarevic
The only players missing from the men’s top 50 are last year’s finalist Rafael Nadal, still seemingly rehabbing his knee injury and other related issues, Mardy Fish, who hasn’t played since the US Open last year, and John Isner, who also went out with a knee injury this month and withdrew earlier in the week, dealing a blow to American hopes.
1st round matchups to watch:
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. Paul Henri Mathieu
Djokovic should not have too much trouble out of the gate since he seems to be in good form, but the rejuvenated Frenchman PHM might have some tricks up his sleeve to give the world number one a test early on. While PHM hasn’t played any ATP matches this year he did take part in the Kooyong classic and pushed Del Potro to 3 sets and depending on his consistency, this could actually be a competitive match.
(11)Juan Monaco vs. Andrey Kuznetsov
Pico has to be on upset alert for this match against the 21-year-old Russian talent Kuznetsov, who has broken into the top 80 after playing mainly at the challenger level last year. Though he seems to prefer clay, Kuznetsov isn’t bad on hard courts either. Monaco has not played any tournament matches this year, as he has been dealing with a hand injury that forced him to pull out of Kooyong. While he seems to be over that now, a mixture of rust and surface creates the makings for an early upset.
David Goffin vs. (22) Fernando Verdasco
Struggling former AO semifinalist Verdasco hasn’t won a singles match in his preparation for the AO. He’ll get a tough test in the humble Belgian youngster Goffin who really isn’t in the best form himself. Goffin enters the AO with a 1-2 singles record after 2nd and 1st round losses in his prep events. Still, you have to think D Goff is playing a bit better than Nando at the moment.
Fabio Fognini vs. Roberto Bautista-Agut
Chennai finalist Bautista-Agut will look to keep his quality play going on the grand slam stage. He retired in Sydney with fatigue but should be well rested now to take on Foginini, who will be sure to throw all the shots he has at the Spaniard. This match will show if Bautista-Agut is primed to surprise in Melbourne.
Michael Russell vs. (5)Tomas Berdych
Veteran baseline grinder muscles Russell got a stroke of luck when he drew a seemingly out of form Berdych, who after being upset in Chennai, was pushed to 3 sets by Ivan Dodig in Kooyang, then lost to Lleyton Hewitt there. Berdych is the stronger player and should not have any trouble with Russell but he has suffered 1st round slam upsets before…
(32)Julien Benneteau vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Seeded Sydney semifinalist Benneteau got the misfortune of drawing one of the hottest unseeded players in the draw in the form of Dimitrov, who he lost to twice last year. The Brisbane finalist has all the talent to make a deep run in Melbourne. This should be a good match full of intrigue and while Dimitrov will be favored, Benny could still grab the win.
Lleyton Hewitt vs. (8) Janko Tipsarevic
Tenacious veteran counter-puncher Lleyton Hewitt no longer carries the hopes of Australia almost solely on his shoulders, since less is expected of him in the twilight of his career. He still can come up with some Melbourne magic now and again and he will need all the magic he can muster against top tenner Tipsarevic, who will be looking to improve upon his results in slams and is coming off the Chennai title. While Tipsarevic will certainly be favored, this should still be a fun and possibly very long match. Last year Hewitt was able to upset Milos Raonic and still seems as motivated as ever to win matches, as just this week he notched some upsets to reach the final of the Kooyong classic.
Grega Zemlja vs. (22) Marcel Granollers
The unseeded Zemlja will be looking to grab the upset against Spaniard Granollers, who though he prefers clay, did make the quarterfinals in Sydney this past week. This match could really go either way and could go 4 or 5 sets.
Gael Monfils vs. (18) Alexandr Dolgopolov
The talented but inconsistent Monfils will meet the talented but inconsistent Dolgo in the opening round for the first time in their careers. Dolgo is a former AO quarterfinalist coming off a quarterfinal in Brisbane while Monfils made the semis in Auckland but was easily bounced by David Ferrer. This match could go either way, in both result and number of sets and I could very easily see this one ending in a retirement, especially if it is a day match in the scorching Melbourne heat.
(25) Florian Mayer vs. (WC) Rhyne Williams
USTA WC winner Rhyne Williams also got good luck in the draw and will have a good chance at an upset against consistent German Mayer who is an even 2-2 in his pre AO tournaments and prefers clay over hard courts. At the US Open last year Mayer fell to another rising American in Jack Sock. Now Williams will look to repeat the feat and has the talent to do it.
(19)Tommy Haas vs. Jarkko Nieminen
Tommy Haas has had success at the AO in the past and returns to Melbourne as a top 25 player looking for a good run. Haas has a tough opening test against the flying fin Jarkko Nieminen, who is coming off a quarterfinal in Sydney, while Haas is coming off a quarterfinal in Auckland. Haas will be favored, but do not put it past Nieminen to get the win.
(2) Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire
The tennis draw maestros did not do Fed any favors this time, as he will have to face the talented 23-year-old Paire, who is near a career high ranking just outside the top 40, in the opening round. Paire made the semis in Chennai and has an all court game, but the last time they met in Basel in 2012, Federer won easily in straight sets.
Djokovic’s quarter:
The defending AO champ Djokovic will face either Ryan Harrison or Santiago Giraldo after doing battle with Mathieu, then could meet an out of form Feliciano Lopez in the 3rd round. It’s a pretty easy early start for the Serbian superstar. Also in this section are the out of form Viktor Troicki and Radek Stepanek, one just struggling, and the other struggling with injuries. They will meet in the 1st round and the winner will play Lopez or a qualifier.
Auckland semi finalist and 25 seed Sam Querrey opens with a qualifier and then should get an intriguing matchup with fellow American Brian Baker, who upset Jerzy Janowicz in the 1st round of Auckland and seems to be playing competitively. The winner of that likely gets a match with 15 seed Stan Wawrinka who opens with a qualifier and then plays Tobias Kamke or Flavio Cipolla.
The winner of Monaco/Kuznetsov will likely face current Sydney finalist Kevin Anderson, who opens with Paolo Lorenzi. Whoever advances will get the winner of Verdasco/Goffin or Auckland quarterfinalist Xaiver Malisse, who opens with a slumping Pablo Andujar.
26 seed Jurgen Melzer opens with Mikhail Kukushkin and then will play the winner of Fognini/Bautista-Agut. In the 3rd round, whoever advances from that section should face Tomas Berdych if he gets through Russell and a qualifier or Guillaume Rufin.
Ferrer’s quarter:
Current Auckland finalist and former AO semi finalist David Ferrer will open with veteran mighty mite Olivier Rochus and then should get a polar opposite match against the veteran big man Ivo Karlovic (who opens with a qualifier). In the 3rd round, odds are he will face Brisbane semifinalist and a guy who does well in Melbourne, Marcos Baghdatis, who opens with a slumping Albert Ramos then the winner of John Millman vs. Tatsuma Ito.
16 seed and Brisbane semifinalist Kei Nishikori, who was dealing with injuries but seems recovered, opens with veteran Victor Hanescu then will meet Carlos Berlocq or a qualifier followed by 23 seed Mikhail Youzhny, who opens with Matt Ebden, then could meet countryman Evgeny Donskoy or Romanian Adrian Ungur.
10 seed Nico Almagro opens with a qualifier followed by the winner of Lukasz Kubot vs. Daniel Gimeno-Traver and then could face a test in the form of Jerzy Janowicz, who looks to recover from a 1st round loss in Auckland and will open with Italian Simone Bolleli, followed by the winner of Somdev Devvarman vs. Bjorn Phau.
The winner of Benneteau/Dimitrov will face Edouard Roger-Vasselin or a qualifier and then prepare for battle with Janko Tipsarevic, who after facing Hewitt, will take on the winner of Lukas Lacko, coming off a quarterfinal in Auckland against Gilles Muller.
Murray’s quarter:
Andy Murray, a semi finalist last year and twice a former AO finalist, will begin another Aussie open odyssey against Dutchman Robin Haase, who does not seem to be in great form. Then he’ll play the winner of Joao Sousa vs. Aussie J.P Smith, followed by a match with either the Mayer/Williams winner, Sergiy Stakhovsky, or a qualifier. Williams actually has a great shot at the 3rd round here.
Moving up the bracket, the Dolgopolov/Monfils winner will play the winner of Yen-Hsun Lu vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, then in the 3rd round should meet 14 seed Gilles Simon, who retired during a match in Sydney and might be struggling a bit. Simon opens with Filippo Volandri, then will face the winner of Tommy Robredo vs. the newly minted Canadian Jesse Levine. Simon at least gets a pretty easy early go of things.
Juan Martin Del Potro looks to bring his big game to Melbourne starting off with a qualifier, followed by the dangerous Aljaz Bedene, who will open with veteran Benjamin Becker. After that, he could play the Zemlja/Granollers winner, Jeremy Chardy, or a qualifier.
Sydney semifinalist Andreas Seppi, the 21 seed, opens with Argentine Horacio Zeballos, then will face the winner of Sydney quarterfinalist Denis Istomin vs. sizzling Igor Sijsling. The winner will likely follow with a match with 12 seed Marin Cilic, who opens up with Aussie Marinko Matosevic, followed by the winner of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. a qualifier. Seppi has a good chance at the 3rd round as Cilic isn’t playing his best tennis at the moment.
Federer’s quarter:
Federer, the 4 time Aussie open champ and semi-finalist last year, has a brutal early draw. After playing Paire he will get the dangerous veteran floater Nikolay Davydenko, who looked so strong previously en route to the Doha final. Davy will open with a qualifier. In the 3rd round, he may have to face home favorite and current Sydney finalist Bernard Tomic, who has realized a lot of his potential this month and is playing some of the best tennis of his young career in front of the home fans. Tomic opens with Leonardo Mayer and then Martin Klizan, the struggling 27 seed, or a qualifier.
Federer declined to play any tournament matches before the AO this year, and will be thrown right in the fire at the get go. He certainly can beat anyone when he is at his best, but any of his first 3 opponents could push him quite hard.
Elsewhere in this quarter, current Auckland finalist and 17 seed Phillip Kohlschreiber opens with Steve Darcis, then will face young Argentine Guido Pella or a qualifier. His possible 3rd round opponent, 13 seed Milos Raonic, who is really struggling this month (losing matches in both Brisbane and the Kooyong classic), opens with Jan Hajek, then a qualifier or fellow serve bomber Lukas Rosol.
9 seed and Doha champ Richard Gasquet will look to keep his momentum going opening with Spanish vet Albert Montanes followed by Alejandro Falla or wild card Josselin Ouanna. In the 3rd round, Gasquet should meet either the Haas/Nieminen winner or Ivan Dodig, an under the radar player who opens with Di Wu of China.
Former AO finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga begins with serve and volleying countryman Michael Llodra, followed by a match against Go Soeda or promising young Aussie Luke Saville. In the 3rd round, Tsonga could meet young Aussies James Duckworth or Ben Mitchell, who will play each other in the 1st round, Blaz Kavic, or 29 seed Thomaz Bellucci, who is talented but inconsistent. Tsonga should have an easy go of things the first few rounds.
Dark Horses (1 for each quarter of the draw): Kevin Anderson, Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Richard Gasquet
Anderson is playing and serving well and does well on hard courts. He gets a very reasonable early draw with Lorenzi, Monaco (who is seeded but not in great shape), then Malisse or Goffin. In the 4th round he will get Berdych or Bautista-Agut, both of whom are beatable and he has a great shot at the quarters, where he will likely run into Djokovic and run out of wins.
Dimitrov is skillful and playing great and assuming he dispatches Benneteau, Roger-Vasselin or a qualifier, he should set up a meeting with Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic will be favored in that one but it isn’t unreasonable that Grisha can pull it off and then beat likely opponent Almagro before running into Ferrer in the quarters. Dimitrov could go out somewhere between the 3rd round and the semis, but either way, he has a lot of upside.
Seppi is seasoned and consistent and has the advantage of a good draw. Assuming he doesn’t trip up against Istomin, he will have the advantage over Cilic but will likely go out in the 4th round at the hands of Del Potro.
Gasquet honestly got a bit lucky in Doha as he fell behind in multiple matches and his tactical play remains questionable, but he still has confidence from it and should be able to get through Montanes, Falla, and Haas, though that latter match will likely be a battle. In the 4th round, while Tsonga will be favored, Gasquet will still have a tremendous opportunity to notch the upset and make the quarterfinals. There he would likely face Federer, unless by some chance an even vaguer dark horse like Tomic, Kohlschreiber or Davydenko were to shock the tennis world and beat him.
Week 1 Predictions (4th round matchups)
Djokovic d. Querrey
Djokovic beat Querrey multiple times in 2012 and the result shouldn’t be any different this time.
Anderson d. Bautista-Agut
Bautista-Agut just beat Berdych in Chennai, and I think he can do it once again to set up this 4th round matchup, but I don’t think he is quite ready for the big time yet. Anderson should edge by.
Ferrer d. Nishikori
Tipsarevic d. Almagro
Del Potro d. Seppi
Murray d. Dolgopolov
Murray has beaten Dolgopolov 4 straight times, including a 4 set victory at the 2011 Aussie Open and a win at the 2012 Brisbane final.
Tsonga d. Gasquet
Federer d. Kohlschreiber
Quarters:
Djokovic d. Anderson
Ferrer d. Tipsarevic
This could be another 5 set ball striking slugfest just like their 2012 US Open quarterfinal matchup.
Murray d. Del Potro
This match could be tight and Del Potro will certainly have his chances.
Federer d. Tsonga
Another chance for Federer to trip up, but he should eke through.
Semis:
Djokovic d. Ferrer
Ferrer is good, but never has been at the level to trip up the big 3.
Murray d. Federer
With a mix of Murray’s motivation, less stress after finally winning a slam and Federer’s fatigue from a brutal draw, edge goes to Murray here.
Final:
Djokovic d. Murray
As much as I personally want to pick Murray, I have to go with Djokovic, who continues to consistently get the job done and hasn’t shown any signs he is not poised to win another AO title. Djokovic beat Murray in a thrilling 2012 AO semi and I expect this match to be just as entertaining if it occurs. On the other hand, Murray did beat Djokovic to win the US Open last year, but it took him 5 sets to do it and Djokovic seemed a bit out of sorts the whole time.
2012 Australian Open Wild Card: Bryan Brothers on Their Future, American Futures, Federer’s Praises
The Bryan Brothers were the celebrity guests of the 2012 Australian Open Wild Card Playoffs. The Brothers are good sports, having devoted their off-seasons to performing in exhibitions and pro-ams. In their December 14 presser, they discuss going out in style at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, their thoughts on the up-and-comers competing in Norcross, and they wistfully recall Roger Federer praising them in Rio to a packed crowd of 1,000 journalists.
Del Potro Stops Fedex in Basel for 2nd Straight ATP Title, Ferrer Wins in Valencia
Del Potro Stops Fedex in Basel for 2nd Straight ATP Title, Ferrer Wins in Valencia
Basel
ATP Basel
Juan Martin Del Potro denied Roger Federer his 6th Basel title with a 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 upset win in a topsy-turvy match. It’s Del Po’s 2nd straight title and he is playing like a champ right now—beating Alejandro Falla, Brian Baker, Kevin Anderson and Richard Gasquet earlier in the week.
Federer beat Benjamin Becker, Thomaz Bellucci in 3 surprisingly tough sets, Benoit Paire, and semi finalist Paul-Henri Mathieu! After dropping the final, Fed withdrew from ATP Paris, citing the need to rest before the World Tour Finals. That gives Novak Djokovic the year end number 1 spot.
In doubles, Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic are back after a breakup. They took the bigger hardware over Treat Conrad Huey and Dominic Inglot. This marks Nestor’s 80th career doubles title. UVA Grad Huey will be competing in the Charlottesville Challenger this week.
ATP Valencia
David Ferrer won his 6th ATP title on the year at his home event 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 over Alexandr Dolgopolov in the other three set final of the weekend. Earlier in the week, Ferrer tore through Olivier Rochus, Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro before dispatching surprise semifinalist Ivan Dodig in three.
Dolgopolov made his second ATP 500 final and continued his rollercoaster year, beating Filippo Volandri, Gilles Muller, Marcel Granollers and semi finalist Jurgen Melzer all in straights.
Alexander Peya and Bruno Soares beat David Marrero and Fernando Verdasco for the doubles title, their 3rd together in the fall campaign.
—Steen Kirby
2012 ATP Paris BNP Paribas Masters Preview
2012 ATP Paris BNP Paribas Masters Preview
Steen Kirby, TennisEastCoast.com
The final big draw event of the year, Paris Bercy, will have big storylines going in. They include Djokovic and Federer both looking to finish as year end number one, while Tsonga, Tipsarevic, Almagro, Gasquet and Raonic all have at shots at qualifying for the World Tour Finals.
ATP Paris
BNP Paribas Masters
ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Paris, France
October 29-November 4, 2012
Prize Money € 2,427,975
Top 8 seeds (who all receive first round byes)
1: Roger Federer
2: Novak Djokovic
3: Andy Murray
4: David Ferrer
5: Tomas Berdych
6: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
7: Juan Martin Del Potro
8: Janko Tipsarevic
Every top 20 player save the injured Nadal is lined up to do battle in the last big tournament of the Tennis season.
First Round Matchups to watch:
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Gilles Simon
Baggy made the semis in Stockholm. Then his wife and former WTA player Karolina Sprem had a baby just a couple days ago, while Simon suffered a 2nd round loss in Valencia to Marcel Granollers. They are both up and down players with talent who could either produce a classic or a straight set rollover. Baggy will either be inspired or tired. Probably a bit of both.
The closest thing to a Crying Baby Kevin Anderson Has Experienced was playing Nalbandian
Kevin Anderson vs. Thomaz Bellucci
This is a meeting between a couple of mid-ranked players who are both in good form right now. Anderson made the quarters in Basel, while Bellucci pushed Roger Federer to three sets in the 2nd round of Basel after coming off a final in Moscow. On the same surface as their previous successes, this match leans Bellucci but the big serving Anderson could pull it off.
Top Half:
Roger Federer, still looking for yet another title in Basel and gunning to remain at world number one, will open with the winner of Baghdatis/Simon and then likely gets 15 seed Kei Nishikori in the 3rd round.
In the quarters, he could meet Tomas Berdych or 12 seed Richard Gasquet. Bellucci, Anderson, Andreas Seppi and Martin Klizan are also in this part of the draw.
Andy Murray looks to finish the year off with a strong opening against Paul-Henri Mathieu or a qualifier, and then will likely do battle with Marin Cilic, a Valencia Quarterfinalist. Cilic is set to meet Phillip Kohlschreiber in the 2nd round. Murray is still playing in Basel.
In the quarters, the winner of Murray/Cilic could meet Juan Monaco or Janko Tipsarevic, who are both looking to qualify for the World Tour Finals. Alexandr Murray could also see Dolgopolov (currently in the Valencia semis) or the man he will play in the semis there, Jurgen Melzer.
Bottom Half:
Novak Djokovic needs a strong result and some help from Federer to finish as year end number one. He’ll open with Fernando Verdasco or Sam Querrey and then could meet Milos Raonic, the 14 seed. Raonic still possesses an outside shot of making the World Tour Finals. Djokovic’s other possible second round opponents include Jeremy Chardy or a qualifier.
In the quarters, Djokovic should do battle with current Basel semifinalist Juan Martin Del Potro. Other options include a slumping John Isner, who will meet the winner of Radek Stepanek vs. Michael Llodra or Florian Mayer/qualifier.
David Ferrer, still in the hunt for his hometown title in Valencia, will meet the winner of countryman Marcel Granollers vs. Mikhail Youzhny, and then would meet 16 seed Stan Wawrinka. Carlos Berlocq or Denis Istomin.
Ferrer will likely draw Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarters, who is working with new coach Roger Rasheed for the first time this week. Ferrer may also face the man he just beat in Valencia, Nicolas Almagro, who needs a good run to make the world tour finals. Viktor Troicki and Julien Benneteau are also in this part of the draw.
Not your typical Dark Horse
Dark Horse: Juan Martin Del Potro
Usually a top 10 player wouldn’t be considered a dark horse, but given the strength of the field and the general dominance of the big 4 in Masters events the title fits. Del Potro, who won in Vienna and is still in the hunt for a title in Basel, plays strong tennis on the indoor hard courts and seems to be in good physical shape going in after recent injuries. He should roll through Mayer and Isner, and if he can somehow find a way through Djokovic, Ferrer or Tsonga would be easier matchups.
Predictions:
Semis:
Federer d. Murray
Djokovic d. Ferrer
It should be a battle of 1 vs. 2 if everything takes shape, while Ferrer and Tsonga are about even shots at making the semis and Murray could suffer an early loss.
Final:
Djokovic d. Federer
